Federal Simulations

This page shows simulations of past Canadian federal elections that use DMP to calculate the outcome. If DMP is used in future elections, it is more likely that districts would be amalgamated than given an extra representative. However, this choice will not have a significant impact on the results produced. Therefore, unless otherwise stated, it was assumed that each district was given an additional representative. Finally, a reserve factor of 10% and a district threshold of 5% were used to produce the simulations.

2015 Federal Election

To determine the outcome of the 2015 federal election, Canada was divided into four regions:

  • Atlantic Canada (PEI, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick)Atlantic Canada 2015
  • Quebec

Quebec 2015

  • Ontario

Ontario 2015

  • Western Canada (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC, Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut)

Western Canada 2015

The country wide results are given below and the district level results can be viewed here.

Canada 2015Seat Distribution by Candidate Placement Canada 2015
Dual Party vs Single Party Representation Canada 2015

District Representation Canada 2015
Under SMP, note that the fraction of districts a party is represented in is equal to the fraction of seats the party has won.

2011 Federal Election

To determine the outcome of the 2011 federal election, Canada was divided into four regions:

  • Atlantic Canada (PEI, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick)

Atlantic Canada 2011

  • Quebec

Quebec 2011

  • Ontario

Ontario 2011

  • Western Canada (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC, Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut)

Western Canada 2011

The country wide results are given below and the district level results can be viewed here.

Canada 2011Candidate Placement Canada 2011Dual vs. Single Party Rep Canada 2011

District Rep by Party Canada 2011
Under SMP, note that the fraction of districts a party is represented in is equal to the fraction of seats the party has won.